Roger Farmer’s Economic Window

I have lost count number of the amount of times I’ve noticed students and faculty repeat the theory in seminars, that “all models are wrong”. This aphorism, related to George Box, is the battle cry of the Minnesota calibrator, a variety of macroeconomist, inspired by Ed Prescott, one of the most crucial and influential economists of the last century.

Of course all models are wrong. That is trivially true: it’s the definition of the model. However the cry has been used for three years to poke fun at attempts to use serious econometric solutions to evaluate time series data. Time series methods were inconvenient to the nascent Real Business Cycle Program that Ed pioneered because the models that he favored were, and still are, overwhelmingly rejected by the facts.

Ed’s response was real genius. If the model and the info are incompatible, the data must be wrong. Time series econometrics, according to Ed, was crushing the acorn before it had time to grow into a tree. His response was not only to reformulate the theory, but also to reformulate how that theory was to be judged. Within a puff of calibrator’s smoke, the history of time series econometrics was relegated to the dustbin of history to take its place alongside alchemy, the ether, and the theory of phlogiston.

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