I have lost count number of the amount of times I’ve noticed students and faculty repeat the theory in seminars, that “all models are wrong”. This aphorism, related to George Box, is the battle cry of the Minnesota calibrator, a variety of macroeconomist, inspired by Ed Prescott, one of the most crucial and influential economists of the last century.
Of course all models are wrong. That is trivially true: it’s the definition of the model. However the cry has been used for three years to poke fun at attempts to use serious econometric solutions to evaluate time series data. Time series methods were inconvenient to the nascent Real Business Cycle Program that Ed pioneered because the models that he favored were, and still are, overwhelmingly rejected by the facts.
Ed’s response was real genius. If the model and the info are incompatible, the data must be wrong. Time series econometrics, according to Ed, was crushing the acorn before it had time to grow into a tree. His response was not only to reformulate the theory, but also to reformulate how that theory was to be judged. Within a puff of calibrator’s smoke, the history of time series econometrics was relegated to the dustbin of history to take its place alongside alchemy, the ether, and the theory of phlogiston.
How will you get customers? How do you want to maintain customers? Describe the necessary salesforce? Can a salesperson of normal skills sell it? Do you need advertising? How obviously can you model the basic economics of the idea? Does it seem sensible to do this solo? It normally doesn’t. How fast can you know if the business could work or not? Is it possible to define the variables to know it? How fast can the info circulation?
Do you need product development to learn? Do you will need a long selling process or many attempts to know? Not easy on new endeavors, but could it be done? Give me the biggest disadvantage / risk (fatal flaw) of the idea? The one which will make it fail? Enlist the seemingly fatal defects that may be fixed. Does the idea fit your daily life objectives? Do you feel passionate about the basic idea? Are you doing it only for the amount of money? Give me the upside best case situation /? Give me the downside / worst case scenario?
- Customer management system — service methodology aligned to their designed customer experience
- The appearance of new or stronger competitors
- Are unafraid to change
- Machine operating techniques, lockout/tagout techniques and safe work procedures
- Don’t leave blank spaces on the payee and amount lines
- Dude I Want That
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- Prepare analytical reviews
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